An Abductive Inference Approach to Assess the Performance-Enhancing Effects of Drugs Included on the World...

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Pharmacology
• Evidence-Based Medicine

Background:

• Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide limited or conflicting evidence on the performance-enhancing effects of substances on the World Anti-Doping Agency's Prohibited List.
• Inductive statistical inference from RCTs alone can lead to biased conclusions due to study limitations like small sample sizes, heterogeneity, and low statistical power.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore the applicability of an abductive inference approach for assessing the performance-enhancing effects of substances on the Prohibited List.
• To evaluate the ergogenic effects of specific substances, including recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEPO), beta2-agonists, and anabolic androgenic steroids (AAS), using abductive inference.

Main Methods:

• Applied an abductive inference framework, evaluating evidence beyond statistical significance.
• Considered observations and facts not exclusively derived from RCTs.
• Extended the approach to assess controversial drug classes with limited RCT data.

Main Results:

• Abductive inference is a valuable tool for assessing the ergogenic effects of banned substances, particularly when traditional inductive inference from RCTs is inconclusive.
• The approach was successfully applied to debated ergogenic aids like rHuEPO, beta2-agonists, and AAS.
• Demonstrated utility for evaluating substances with scarce or limited RCT evidence.

Conclusions:

• Abductive inference provides a more comprehensive method for evaluating doping substances compared to relying solely on RCTs.
• This approach can help researchers identify potential causal relationships or highlight areas needing further investigation in anti-doping research.
• Systematic abductive inference aids in the assessment of ergogenic effects, enhancing the reliability of conclusions in sports science and anti-doping efforts.