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Validation of ERICVA Risk Score as a Predictor of One Year Amputation-Free Survival of Patients with Critical Limb

Sara-Azhari Mohamed1, Navian Lee Viknaswaran2, Jonathan Doran3

  • 1Regenerative Medicine Institute, National University of Ireland Galway, Ireland; Department of Vascular Surgery, Galway University Hospital, Galway, Ireland.

Annals of Vascular Surgery
|April 5, 2021
PubMed

Insights

The ERICVA risk score shows fair validity for predicting amputation-free survival in critical limb ischemia (CLI) patients. A simplified version offers similar predictive power and can replace the full score.

Area of Science:

  • Vascular Surgery
  • Clinical Risk Stratification
  • Amputation Prevention

Background:

  • Critical Limb Ischemia (CLI) poses a significant risk for amputation.
  • The ERICVA score was developed to predict amputation-free survival (AFS) in CLI patients.
  • External validation of the ERICVA score was lacking.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To externally validate the ERICVA risk score system for predicting one-year amputation-free survival (AFS) in patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI).
  • To compare the predictive performance of the full ERICVA scale (11 parameters) and a simplified version (5 parameters).

Main Methods:

  • Prospective data collection from 179 CLI patients prescreened for a stem cell trial.
  • Validation of full and simplified ERICVA scores using Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).
  • Chi-square tests and Kaplan-Meier survival curves analyzed risk group association with one-year AFS.

Main Results:

  • A significant association was found between ERICVA risk groups and one-year AFS (P=0.0007).
  • Kaplan-Meier curves showed significant differences in AFS among risk groups (log-rank P < 0.001).
  • AUC for the full and simplified scores were 0.63 and 0.61, respectively; simplified score had higher specificity (0.92 vs 0.84).

Conclusions:

  • The ERICVA risk score demonstrates fair validity but is not a completely reliable predictor of one-year AFS in CLI patients.
  • The simplified ERICVA score performs comparably to the full score and is recommended for clinical use.
  • Further research may be needed to enhance the reliability of risk stratification for CLI patients.
Abstract

Keywords:
Critical Limb IschemiaERICVA scoreRisk Score

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