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Impacts of COVID-19 on Global Value Chains
Kazunobu Hayakawa1, Hiroshi Mukunoki2
1Development Studies Center Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO Chiba Japan.
The Developing Economies
|April 6, 2021
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted global value chains, primarily impacting supply chains and output, with minimal effects on demand for machinery products. Intra-Asian trade showed resilience in output effects compared to other regions.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- International Trade
- Supply Chain Management
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic presented unprecedented challenges to global economic systems.
- Understanding its impact on international trade and value chains is crucial for economic recovery and future resilience.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the effects of COVID-19 on global value chains for finished machinery products.
- To analyze impacts on demand, output, and supply chains across different trading scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Examined bilateral trade data for finished machinery products from January to June 2019 and 2020.
- Utilized COVID-19 case and death data as pandemic impact metrics.
- Assessed impacts across three key scenarios: importing countries, exporting countries, and machinery parts exporters.
Main Results:
- Supply chain disruptions had the most significant negative impact.
- Output effects were the second largest negative impact.
- Demand effects showed no statistically significant impact.
- Output effects were less pronounced in intra-Asian trade compared to other regions.
Conclusions:
- Global value chains, particularly supply chains and output, were negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Demand for machinery products remained largely unaffected.
- Intra-Asian trade demonstrated greater resilience in output compared to global trade patterns.
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