Strategy to identify priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination: A population based cohort study

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Gerontology

Background:

• COVID-19 disproportionately affects individuals with chronic diseases.
• Vaccination programs aim to minimize mortality and severe outcomes.
• Identifying high-risk populations is crucial for effective public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop an evidence-based strategy for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination.
• To identify specific chronic diseases that increase mortality risk post-infection.
• To inform public health authorities on efficient vaccination targeting.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of 146,087 COVID-19 cases in Milan.
• Utilized individual-level data on 42 chronic diseases and vital status.
• Employed LASSO regression to identify mortality predictors across age groups.

Main Results:

• Identified key chronic diseases predicting mortality, varying by age.
• Chronic renal failure, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, Parkinson's, and psychiatric diseases were significant in older adults.
• Neoplasms, organ transplantation, and psychiatric conditions were predictors in younger adults.

Conclusions:

• A two-level vaccination prioritization strategy based on comorbidities can be implemented by health authorities.
• This approach can be adapted locally and updated with current data.
• Future vaccination strategies can be revised based on effectiveness and safety data.