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Digital herd immunity and COVID-19.

Vir B Bulchandani1,2, Saumya Shivam3, Sanjay Moudgalya3,4,5

  • 1Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States of America.

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|April 7, 2021
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Digital herd immunity, enabled by smartphone contact tracing, can protect populations from epidemics even without individual immunity. High smartphone usage is key to maintaining this digital immunity and preventing outbreaks.

Keywords:
COVID-19contact tracingdigital herd immunity

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Digital Health

Background:

  • Traditional herd immunity relies on individual immunity within a population.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for innovative epidemic control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and analyze the concept of 'digital herd immunity' using smartphone technology.
  • To investigate the conditions under which digital herd immunity can prevent epidemics.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a simple branching-process model for disease transmission.
  • Simulation and analysis of epidemic dynamics based on smartphone usage and contact tracing.

Main Results:

  • Digital herd immunity is achievable through smartphone-based contact tracing, even with zero individual immunity.
  • A phase transition from an immune to an epidemic state occurs as smartphone usage declines.
  • The effectiveness of digital immunity is independent of the proportion of non-symptomatic transmission.

Conclusions:

  • Smartphone-driven contact tracing can establish population-level immunity ('digital herd immunity').
  • Maintaining high smartphone adoption is crucial for sustained epidemic prevention.
  • This digital approach offers a novel strategy for managing infectious disease outbreaks.