Actual versus perceived infection rates of COVID-19: Impact on distress, behavior and disability

Accurate threat appraisal is central to survival. In the case of the coronavirus pandemic, accurate threat appraisal is difficult due to incomplete medical knowledge as well as complex social factors (e.g., mixed public health messages). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the degree to which individuals accurately perceive COVID-19 infection rates and to explore the role of COVID-19 threat perception on emotional and behavioral responses both cross sectionally and prospectively.

A community sample (N = 249) was assessed using online crowdsourcing and followed for one month. COVID-19 threat appraisal was compared with actual COVID-19 infection rates and deaths at the time of data collection in each participant's county and state. It was predicted that actual versus perceived COVID-19 infection rates would only be modestly associated. Relative to actual infection rates, perceived infection rates were hypothesized to be a better predictor of COVID-related behaviors, distress, and impairment.

Findings indicated that relative to actual infection, perceived infection was a better predictor of COVID-related outcomes cross sectionally and longitudinally. Interestingly, actual infection rates were negatively related to behaviors cross sectionally (e.g., less stockpiling). Prospectively, these variables interacted to predict avoidance behaviors over time such that the relationship between perceived infection and avoidance was stronger as actual infection increased.

These data suggest that perceived COVID-19 infection is significantly associated with COVID-related behaviors, distress and impairment whereas actual infection rates have a less important and perhaps even paradoxical influence on behavioral responses to the pandemic.