[Forcasting the prevalence of myopia among students aged 6-18 years in China from 2021 to 2030]

Objective: To predict the prevalence of myopia among Chinese students aged 6-18 years under different intervention scenarios from 2021 to 2030. Methods: The multi-state Markov model was developed based on the transition process of study stages and myopia statuses. The development of myopia was simplified into two statuses: non-myopia and myopia. Students aged 6-18 years were also divided according to their study stages including senior kindergarten, primary school (from Grade 1 to 6), junior school (from Grade 1 to 3) and high school (from Grade 1 to 3). The parameters were extracted from the National Myopia Investigation in 2018 and published articles of cohort studies. The transition probability was applied to simulate the intervention scenarios, and sensitivity analysis was carried out. Results: The cumulative incidence of myopia among Chinese school-aged children and adolescents would increase consistently. It would be 91.3% (min to max: 83.7% to 96.7%) upon graduation from high school. Without any intervention, the myopia prevalence would increase to 61.8% (min to max: 55.4% to 69.5%) by 2030 among Chinese school-aged children and adolescents. And the myopia prevalence among students in primary schools, junior schools and high schools would be 45.6% (min to max: 40.2% to 54.3%), 81.3% (min to max: 72.6% to 91.0%) and 90.5% (min to max: 82.4% to 96.7%), respectively, all higher than the national target. If the interventions could achieve 70% of the desired effect, the myopia prevalence would be lower than the national target at each stage. Conclusions: Without effective interventions, the prevalence of myopia among students aged 6-18 years may keep increasing in the next ten years. If the interventions achieve the desired effect, the national target for myopia prevention and control could be reached. It is urgent to identify more effective interventions and call on the whole society to participate in the myopia prevention action to achieve the national goal by 2030. (Chin J Ophthalmol, 2021, 57: 261-267).