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Is Seismicity Operating at a Critical Point?

Shyam Nandan1, Sumit Kumar Ram2, Guy Ouillon3

  • 1Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Sonneggstrasse 5, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland.

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|April 9, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study challenges the idea of earthquake criticality. By using an advanced epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, researchers found that previously reported earthquake criticality is likely an artifact of model calibration, not a true physical property.

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Area of Science:

  • Earth Sciences
  • Geophysics
  • Seismology

Background:

  • Earthquake scaling laws often suggest underlying physical mechanisms related to criticality.
  • Previous studies interpreted these laws as evidence for critical behavior in seismicity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantitatively test the hypothesis of seismicity criticality.
  • To investigate the influence of spatial variability in background earthquake rates on criticality assessments.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized an augmented epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model incorporating spatially variable background rates.
  • Calibrated the model using global ANSS, California, and New Zealand (Geonet) earthquake catalogs.
  • Employed an extended expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for model calibration and background rate determination.

Main Results:

  • Demonstrated that previously reported earthquake criticality is spurious.
  • Attributed the spurious criticality to systematic upward bias in ETAS branching ratio calibration when spatial variability is ignored.
  • Validated the space-varying background rate ETAS model through pseudoprospective forecasting.

Conclusions:

  • Seismicity is likely noncritical, contrary to previous interpretations.
  • Accurate accounting for spatial variations in background rates is crucial for reliable ETAS model calibration.
  • The noncritical nature of seismicity has significant implications for predicting large earthquake events.