Ambient PM_2.5 organic and elemental carbon in New York City: Changing source contributions during a decade of large...

Fine particle (PM_2.5) exposure is a public health issue affecting millions of people worldwide. In New York State, significant emission reductions occurred during the past decades due to fuel switching, increased renewable energy, and transformations in buildings and transportation. Between 2002 and 2018, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x, SO₂, VOCs, and primary PM_2.5 declined by 58%, 61%, 89%, 47%, and 29%, respectively, in New York and three adjoining states. Ambient PM_2.5 mass concentrations decreased but contributions of source types to changes in PM_2.5 elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) are incompletely understood. Receptor modeling was used to estimate changing source contributions to EC and OC in New York City (NYC) between 2007 and 2019. Source identification was facilitated by incorporating measurements of CO, NO, NO₂, O₃, SO_2, and speciated hydrocarbons (1,3-butadiene, n-butane, isobutane, n-pentane, isopentane, isoprene, benzene, toluene, xylenes, acetaldehyde, and formaldehyde). Hydrocarbon species identified mobile-source emissions, evaporative emissions, biogenics, and photochemical secondary organic aerosol. At three study locations, predicted reductions of TC (OC + EC) summed over all source types were 1.3 ± 0.2 μg m^-3, compared with a measured TC reduction of 1.5 ± 0.2 μg m^-3. Declining sulfate concentrations and cleaner mobile sources together reduced the predicted average TC by a combined 1 μg m^-3. Smaller changes occurred in other source contributions, e.g., 0.15 ± 0.01 μg m^-3 reduction likely in response to NYC regulations related to heating fuel oil. Biomass burning PM_2.5 increased between 2007 and 2011, then declined between 2015 and 2019. Reductions contrast with a non-significant increase of 0.05 μg m^-3 in photochemical TC. Further opportunities to decrease PM_2.5 concentrations include wood burning and photochemical-related OC. Continued temporal analysis and source apportionment will be needed to track changes in air quality and source contributions as jurisdictions expand renewable energy and energy efficiency goals.Implications: Large emission reductions that occurred in the eastern U.S. between 2002 and 2019 lowered average fine particle concentrations in New York City by a factor of two. Secondary organic aerosol concentrations declined as sulfate decreased but increased non-significantly with rising ozone. Cleaner mobile-source emissions lowered elemental and organic carbon concentrations. Opportunities for further reductions of PM_2.5 concentrations include biomass burning and photochemical secondary aerosol.