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Updated: Nov 9, 2025

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Clinical and radiological activity of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in a population-based cohort
Guillaume Mathey1,2, Thomas Ancel1, Teresa Garot3
1Department of Neurology, Nancy University Hospital, Nancy, France.
Background And Purpose:
Patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SP MS) and clinical and/or radiological activity could be the more likely to benefit from disease-modifying treatments. To evaluate the proportions each year after progression onset, patients with SP MS onset between 2002 and 2012 from a population-based multiple sclerosis registry in northeastern France were studied.
Methods:
Progression onset was first identified by the neurologist's diagnosis (N cohort), and then by using an automated data-driven definition (D cohort). In a given year after onset of progression, clinical activity was defined as at least one relapse, and radiological activity as at least one new T2 and/or gadolinium-enhancing lesion. A multivariate mixed logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with activity during the year.
Results:
In the N cohort, amongst 833 patients with SP MS with a median follow-up of 8 years, 10.0%-14.8% had at least one relapse in a year during the first 5 years of progression. Including both clinical and radiological activity increased these proportions to 11.9%-23.7%, with the proportion having a magnetic resonance imaging scan in the year ranging from 29.8% to 40.5%. The first year of progression, a young age and a high relapse rate during the 5 years before progression were associated with activity in a given year. The D cohort results confirmed these findings.
Conclusions:
A substantial proportion of patients with SP MS present disease activity. Further studies should evaluate the impact of disease-modifying treatments on the disease course of these patients.
Insights
A significant number of patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SP MS) show disease activity. This highlights the potential benefit of disease-modifying treatments for SP MS patients with ongoing clinical or radiological activity.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Immunology
- Clinical Research
Background:
- Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SP MS) is characterized by disease progression.
- Identifying patients with active SP MS is crucial for treatment decisions.
- Disease-modifying treatments may offer benefits to active SP MS patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the annual proportion of patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SP MS) exhibiting clinical and/or radiological activity after progression onset.
- To identify factors associated with disease activity in SP MS patients.
Main Methods:
- Study included patients with SP MS onset between 2002-2012 from a French registry.
- Progression onset defined by neurologist diagnosis (N cohort) and data-driven methods (D cohort).
- Clinical activity: >=1 relapse; Radiological activity: >=1 new T2/gadolinium-enhancing lesion. Multivariate logistic regression used.
Main Results:
- In the N cohort (833 patients, 8-year median follow-up), 10.0%-14.8% had relapses annually in the first 5 years.
- Including radiological activity increased active proportions to 11.9%-23.7%.
- Early progression year, young age, and prior high relapse rate predicted activity.
Conclusions:
- A substantial proportion of SP MS patients exhibit disease activity.
- Further research is needed to assess the impact of disease-modifying treatments on active SP MS patients.
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