Correlation with spontaneous pneumothorax and weather change, especially warm front approaching

Primary spontaneous pneumothorax (PSP) occurs more frequently in young, tall men, with approximately 10,000 times video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) annually in Japan is undergoing for surgical treatment. The underlying mechanisms remain unclear, but several reports have suggested correlation with weather conditions. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between onset of PSP and changes in weather.

We retrospectively analyzed data from 112 patients who underwent VATS for PSP in Iwate, Japan from 1 January 2010 to 14 June 2020. Of the 3,818 days in this study period, the day on which the patient became aware of symptoms was classified as the PSP onset day (n=112), and all others were classified as PSP non-onset day (n=3,706). Meteorological data were collected from airbase station using an online source for the same place and same time. Logistic regression modeling was used to obtain predicted risks for the onset of PSP with respect to weather conditions.

Among the meteorological parameters, significant differences were mainly found at 2 days before onset for increasing average temperature [odds ratio (OR): 1.97, P=0.018], minimum temperature (OR: 1.97, P=0.018), average humidity (OR: 1.58, P=0.043), and decreased the sunshine time (OR: 2.26, P=0.012). No significant difference was observed in atrophic pressure at 2 days before onset.

Onset of PSP may correlate with the increased temperature and humidity, seen with an approaching of warm front.