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Related Experiment Video

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Clinical Examination Protocol to Detect Atypical and Classical Scrapie in Sheep
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Sheep scab transmission: a spatially explicit dynamic metapopulation model.

Emily Nixon1,2, Ellen Brooks-Pollock3,4, Richard Wall5

  • 1School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, 24 Tyndall Avenue, Bristol, BS8 1TQ, UK. emily.nixon@bristol.ac.uk.

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|April 13, 2021
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Summary

A new model accurately predicts sheep scab outbreaks by analyzing farm locations and sheep movements. This tool aids in understanding disease spread and developing better management strategies for psoroptic mange.

Keywords:
ControlDiseaseEctoparasitePsoroptes ovisSheep movementTransmission dynamics

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Parasitology
  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Psoroptic mange (sheep scab) causes significant economic losses and animal welfare issues globally.
  • Resistance to current treatments necessitates improved disease management strategies.
  • Existing management approaches are hindered by the difficulty in eradicating sheep scab.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a flexible, stochastic spatial metapopulation model for sheep scab transmission.
  • To create a model adaptable to different geographical regions, using Great Britain as a case study.
  • To provide insights into sheep scab transmission dynamics for enhanced control strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized agricultural survey and sheep movement data to geo-reference farms and model realistic movement patterns.
  • Employed Sequential Monte Carlo Approximate Bayesian Computation for model fitting.
  • Used reported sheep scab outbreak data from 1973 to 1991 for model calibration and validation.

Main Results:

  • The model accurately predicted outbreak incidence, matching the statistical distribution of reported data (p = 1).
  • Predicted spatial locations of outbreaks showed a significant positive correlation with observed data by county (r = 0.55, p < 0.001).
  • The model successfully captured the number of infected farms annually, scab incidence seasonality, and spatial patterns.

Conclusions:

  • The developed stochastic spatial metapopulation model accurately reflects sheep scab transmission dynamics.
  • This validated model offers a valuable tool for exploring and optimizing future sheep scab control strategies.
  • The model's adaptability allows for application in various sheep-rearing regions worldwide.