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Early prediction keys for COVID-19 cases progression: A meta-analysis
Mostafa M Khodeir1, Hassan A Shabana2, Abdullah S Alkhamiss3
1Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt; Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, Qassim University, Buraidah, Qassim, Saudi Arabia.
Journal of Infection and Public Health
|April 13, 2021
Summary
Biomarkers like C-reactive protein and interleukin-6, along with factors such as age and diabetes, can predict severe COVID-19 progression. This meta-analysis identifies key indicators for disease severity and timely treatment guidance.
Area of Science:
- Infectious Diseases
- Clinical Diagnostics
- Biomarker Research
Background:
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has led to millions of deaths globally.
- Predicting COVID-19 case progression remains challenging, with limited consensus on reliable predictive factors.
- Existing studies report varied laboratory values for predicting severe disease progression.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically analyze biomarker values and risk factors associated with COVID-19 severity.
- To evaluate the correlation between specific biomarkers and the progression of COVID-19 from mild/moderate to severe/critical cases.
- To identify potential predictive indicators for COVID-19 case progression.
Main Methods:
- A meta-analysis was conducted on relevant articles identified through eight databases.
- Eligibility criteria for study selection were defined using a PICO model.
- The analysis focused on biomarkers and risk factors predicting progression to severe and critical COVID-19.
Main Results:
- Twenty-two articles were included in the meta-analysis.
- High cut-off values for C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, LDH, neutrophils, %PD-1 expression, D-dimer, creatinine, AST, and cortisol were linked to severe/critical COVID-19.
- Low lymphocyte count, low albumin levels, older age, hypertension, diabetes, and COPD were significantly correlated with disease progression (p < 0.05).
Conclusions:
- This meta-analysis provides initial cut-off reference values for predicting COVID-19 progression.
- Further large-scale studies are necessary to establish clearer threshold values for predicting progression.
- Additional biomarker testing could aid in developing scoring systems for prediction and guiding timely treatment.
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