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Marginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill
1Brown University, Providence, RI, USA. christopher_horvat@brown.edu.
Nature Communications
|April 14, 2021
Summary
Global climate models underestimate Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) loss. The marginal ice zone fraction (MIZF) offers a more reliable metric for evaluating sea-ice models across various conditions.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Arctic System Science
- Sea Ice Physics
Background:
- Global climate models (GCMs) consistently underestimate the September Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) response to warming.
- High correlation between modeled SIA loss and global mean temperature increases complicates model evaluation.
- Distinguishing sea-ice model improvements from other GCM component changes is challenging.
Purpose of the Study:
- Quantify GCM internal variability and inter-model variability in SIA response to warming (1979-2014).
- Assess the plausibility of SIA response to warming across all months in modern GCMs.
- Identify a novel metric for evaluating sea-ice models.
Main Methods:
- Utilized five large GCM ensembles and CMIP6 simulations.
- Analyzed SIA response to global mean temperature increases from 1979-2014.
- Introduced and evaluated the marginal ice zone fraction (MIZF) as a key metric.
Main Results:
- Modern GCMs do not plausibly estimate SIA response to warming in all months.
- MIZF shows less correlation to warming and a plausible simulated response from January to September.
- MIZF exhibits high variability in future projections across GCMs.
Conclusions:
- MIZF is less sensitive to warming than SIA, making it a more robust indicator.
- MIZF's variable projections highlight its utility for assessing sea-ice model impacts.
- MIZF aids in evaluating sea-ice model changes for past, present, and future climate states.
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