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Synchronized and asynchronous modulation of seismicity by hydrological loading: A case study in Taiwan
Ya-Ju Hsu1,2, Honn Kao3, Roland Bürgmann4
1Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan. yaru@earth.sinica.edu.tw.
Earthquake activity in Taiwan correlates with water unloading, with higher seismic hazard during drier periods. This hydrological modulation affects deep earthquakes but not shallow ones in eastern Taiwan.
Area of Science:
- Seismology
- Hydrology
- Geophysics
Background:
- Understanding physical factors triggering earthquakes is crucial.
- Hydrological processes can influence seismicity.
- Taiwan provides a unique setting to study these interactions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between hydrological changes and earthquake activity in Taiwan.
- To determine the role of water unloading and loading cycles in modulating seismicity.
- To explore potential driving mechanisms for observed seismic patterns.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of groundwater level data.
- Processing of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) time series.
- Correlation analysis between hydrological data and seismicity rates.
Main Results:
- Seismicity in western Taiwan peaks during water unloading (Feb-Apr) and is lowest during water loading (Jul-Sep).
- Deep earthquakes in eastern Taiwan show similar modulation, supporting the elastic hydrological load cycle theory.
- Shallow eastern Taiwan earthquakes (<18 km) exhibit an anticorrelation with water unloading, unexplained by current models.
Conclusions:
- The elastic hydrological load cycle is a significant driver for deep earthquake modulation in Taiwan.
- Shallow earthquake behavior in eastern Taiwan suggests other time-dependent processes are at play.
- A modestly higher seismic hazard may occur during periods of low annual hydrological loading.
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