Ensemble forecasting of a continuously decreasing trend in bladder cancer incidence in Taiwan

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Epidemiology
• Public Health

Background:

• Bladder cancer is a significant global health concern, representing a substantial portion of urinary system malignancies.
• The World Health Organization's '25 by 25' goal necessitates effective strategies for reducing non-communicable disease burdens, including cancer.
• Understanding incidence trends is crucial for public health planning and intervention development.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze age-specific bladder cancer incidence trends in Taiwan from 1997 to 2016.
• To forecast future bladder cancer incidence rates up to 2025.
• To evaluate the potential achievement of the WHO's 25% reduction goal for non-communicable diseases.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an ensemble age-period-cohort model for trend estimation and forecasting.
• Analyzed age-specific bladder cancer cases and population data for ages 25 and above.
• Data spanned from 1997 to 2016 in Taiwan, with projections to 2025.

Main Results:

• Bladder cancer incidence rates showed a consistent downward trend after 2003 for all ages and both sexes.
• Projected age-standardized incidence rates for men in 2025 are 10.4 per 100,000, a 32.9% decrease from 2016.
• Projected age-standardized incidence rates for women in 2025 are 3.7 per 100,000, a 33.9% decrease from 2016.

Conclusions:

• Bladder cancer incidence in Taiwan is projected to continue its decreasing trend.
• The study forecasts that Taiwan will achieve more than a 25% reduction in bladder cancer incidence from 2016 to 2025.
• These findings support the feasibility of meeting global public health targets for non-communicable diseases.