Related Experiment Video
Updated: Nov 8, 2025
04:23
A Murine Model of Dengue Virus-induced Acute Viral Encephalitis-like Disease
Published on: April 28, 2019
6.8K
Climate-based dengue model in Semarang, Indonesia: Predictions and descriptive analysis
Nuning Nuraini1,2, Ilham Saiful Fauzi1, Muhammad Fakhruddin3,1
1Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|April 19, 2021
Summary
This study developed a climate-based mathematical model to forecast dengue incidence by linking meteorological factors to disease transmission. The model accurately predicts dengue outbreaks, aiding public health efforts against this vector-borne disease.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Dengue is a rapidly spreading vector-borne disease posing significant health risks in tropical and subtropical regions.
- Climate is strongly correlated with both the abundance of dengue vectors and disease incidence.
- Developing climate-based mathematical models for dengue transmission is crucial due to these associations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To construct a host-vector model simulating dengue transmission dynamics.
- To integrate meteorological factors into the disease infection model.
- To forecast dengue incidence using climate variables.
Main Methods:
- A host-vector model was developed to simulate transmission dynamics.
- The infection rate was optimized daily using climate data and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models.
- The optimized infection rate was modeled as a function of climate variables.
Main Results:
- Daily climate data can be used to extend the infection parameter for forecasting dengue incidence.
- The model demonstrated accurate predictions across varying prediction window lengths.
- Specific climate associations were identified: reversed slide-shaped for humidity, reversed U-shaped for temperature and precipitation, with optimal temperature ranges and humidity/precipitation thresholds.
Conclusions:
- Identifying climate-dengue associations is vital for mitigating dengue risk.
- This approach can enhance public health systems.
- It offers a strategy to reduce the growing burden of dengue.
Related Concept Videos
01:16What is Climate?
19.7K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
19.7K
01:17Precipitation and Co-precipitation
3.1K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
3.1K
01:50Global Climate Change
27.7K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
27.7K
02:41Responses to Drought and Flooding
11.4K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
11.4K
01:12Precipitation Processes
2.0K
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
2.0K
01:25Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
678
Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
678