Risk factors for not finishing an ultramarathon: 4-year study in 23,996 race starters, SAFER XXI

Limited data support prerace medical screening to identify risk factors for not finishing an endurance running race. The aim of the study was to determine risk factors associated with not finishing an ultramarathon.

A prospective, cross-sectional study of Two Oceans ultramarathon (56 km) race starters who completed a prerace medical screening questionnaire. Race day environmental conditions were recorded on race day. Univariate analyses of risk factors associated with the did-not-finish (DNF) included race day factors and prerace medical screening history.

Risk factors for DNF amongst 23,996 starters during the 56 km race included older age and females (P<0.0001). After adjusting for age and sex, the following were significant univariate risk factors: fewer years of running (P<0.0001), less previous race experience (P<0.0001), less training/racing per week (P=0.0002), lower average weekly training distance (P=0.0016), slower race vs. training speed (P<0.0001), lack of allergies (P=0.0100) and average wet-bulb globe temperature (P<0.0001).

Females, older age, training-related factors (less training/racing, average weekly training distance, race vs. training speed) and average wet-bulb temperature, were risk factors for not finishing an ultramarathon. The results may not only assist runners and coaches in race preparation, but also have clinical implications for the medical planning prior to races.