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Determinants of neonatal, post-neonatal and child mortality in Afghanistan using frailty models
Ian A Forde1, Vrijesh Tripathi2
1Foundation and Prior Learning, University of Trinidad and Tobago, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago. ianforde.snr@gmail.com.
Insights
Community frailty significantly impacts under-five mortality in Afghanistan. Promoting breastfeeding and supporting vulnerable families are key to reducing child deaths.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Demography
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Afghanistan faces a critical under-five mortality rate, necessitating identification of key determinants.
- Understanding familial and community frailty is crucial for effective intervention strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify determinants of under-five mortality in Afghanistan.
- To investigate the presence of familial and community frailty influencing child survival.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of the 2015 Afghanistan Demographic Health Survey data (32,712 live births).
- Application of piecewise traditional Cox proportional hazard, variance-corrected, and frailty models.
- Disaggregation of under-five mortality into neonatal, post-neonatal, and child mortality categories.
Main Results:
- Statistically significant evidence of community frailty was identified.
- Breastfeeding status emerged as a critical determinant for neonatal and post-neonatal mortality.
- Increased mortality risks were observed for higher birth orders (5+) and children of mothers employed in agriculture.
Conclusions:
- The Afghanistan Ministry of Public Health should prioritize identifying and supporting frail communities.
- Policies encouraging early and continued breastfeeding are essential.
- Provision of support services, such as daycare, can mitigate mortality risks for vulnerable families.
Background:
Afghanistan has one of the highest under-five mortality rates in South Asia, 70.4 per 1000 live births. Determinants need to be identified to reduce this rate. Knowledge of the existence of familial and community frailty will also assist in the reduction of under-five mortality.
Methods:
The 2015 Afghanistan Demographic Health Survey, including 32,712 live births, was analysed. Under-five mortality was disaggregated into neonatal, post-neonatal and child mortality and piecewise traditional Cox proportional hazard, variance-corrected and frailty models were developed. All the models identified determinants and the two frailty models examined the existence of familial and community frailty for each age group.
Results:
There was statistically significant evidence of community frailty. Breastfeeding status was a highly significant determinant under univariable and multivariable analysis for neonatal and post-neonatal mortality. Post-neonates of employed mothers also experienced increased mortality, particularly those whose mother worked in agriculture where the hazard ratio was 2.77 (95% CI 2.10, 3.65). Birth order 5+ was associated with increased mortality for all three age groups.
Conclusion:
The Afghanistan Ministry of Public Health should identify frail communities. Support, such as daycare facilities, should be provided and early initiation of breastfeeding and breastfeeding throughout the post-neonatal period should also be encouraged.
Impact:
The study identified determinants of neonatal, post-neonatal and child mortality. The study also established the presence of community frailty with respect to under-five mortality in Afghanistan. The study shows that the association of not breastfeeding and mortality is more acute in the early neonatal age group and it extends into the post-neonatal age group. The study identified the association of high birth order and mortality in the neonatal, post-neonatal and child age groups in Afghanistan. Policies should be implemented that encourage early initiation of breastfeeding to continue throughout the post-neonatal period and support for vulnerable families should be provided.
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