Association of Opioid Use Disorder With 2016 Presidential Voting Patterns: Cross-sectional Study in New York State at...

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Geospatial Analysis

Background:

• Opioid overdose-related deaths have significantly increased, necessitating a deeper understanding of opioid poisoning (OP) and opioid use disorder (OUD) epidemiology.
• Combating the opioid epidemic requires comprehensive epidemiological insights into OUD and OP.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify geospatial patterns in nonmedical opioid use.
• To examine correlations between opioid use and demographic factors, including 2016 US presidential voting patterns at the census tract level in New York State.

Main Methods:

• Cross-sectional analysis of New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System claims data and 2016 presidential voting data.
• Inclusion of 63,958 patients with OUD diagnoses (2010–2016) and 36,004 patients with OP diagnoses (2012–2016).
• Geospatial mapping of OUD rates and voting patterns, with multiple regression analysis to identify predictors of OUD rate variation.

Main Results:

• Similar patterns of OUD rates and Republican vote observed in western New York, central New York, and Suffolk County.
• A significant positive correlation (r=0.38, P<.001) was found between OUD rates and the Republican vote.
• Demographic and socioeconomic factors, particularly disability and Republican vote, explained 30% of the variance in OUD rates.

Conclusions:

• OUD rates at the census tract level positively correlate with Republican support in the 2016 election, disability, unemployment, and unmarried status.
• Socioeconomic and demographic factors significantly mediate the relationship between Republican voting and OUD.
• Findings emphasize the critical role of socioeconomic interventions in addressing the opioid epidemic.