Introducing CASCADEPOP: an open-source sociodemographic simulation platform for us health policy appraisal

Area of Science:

• Health policy research
• Computational epidemiology
• Population modeling

Background:

• Agent-based models and individual-level simulations are crucial for health policy appraisal.
• Accurate, long-term population data is needed to model non-communicable disease development.
• Historical sociodemographic trends are essential for realistic health policy modeling.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop CASCADEPOP, a US population microsimulation and micro-synthesis platform.
• To provide a tool for modeling health behaviors and policies across life courses.
• To enable the creation of agent-based models for health research.

Main Methods:

• Micro-synthesis using iterative proportional fitting integrated diverse US datasets.
• Synthetic population generated for ages 12-80 in 1980 across five states and the US.
• Microsimulation tracked sociodemographic trajectories from 1980 to 2015, including births, deaths, and migration.

Main Results:

• The 1980 micro-synthesis accurately depicted state and US population characteristics and alcohol use patterns.
• The 30-year microsimulation successfully replicated sociodemographic developments compared to Census data.
• CASCADEPOP provides a robust foundation for agent-based modeling and health policy research.

Conclusions:

• CASCADEPOP offers a validated platform for simulating US population dynamics and health behaviors.
• The platform supports detailed examination of health interventions and policies at individual and population levels.
• Researchers can extend CASCADEPOP for advanced agent-based modeling and microsimulation studies.