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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Nov 8, 2025

Author Spotlight: Self-Assessment Protocol for Predicting Psoriatic Arthritis in Psoriasis Patients
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Psoriasis Prevalence and Severity by Expert Elicitation.

Kim A Papp1,2, Robert Gniadecki3, Jennifer Beecker4,5,6,7

  • 1Probity Medical Research Inc., Waterloo, ON, Canada. kapapp@probitymedical.com.

Dermatology and Therapy
|April 22, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Expert elicitation (EE) provides reliable psoriasis prevalence estimates of 3.0% in adults. This method also clarifies disease severity distribution, showing most patients have mild to moderate plaque psoriasis.

Keywords:
BSABayesianDisease severityExpert elicitationPrevalencePsoriasis

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Area of Science:

  • Dermatology
  • Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Psoriasis affects 2-4% of Western populations, but prevalence estimates vary significantly due to differing methodologies and definitions.
  • Accurate prevalence data for plaque psoriasis and its severity distribution remain elusive.
  • This study explores expert elicitation (EE) as a novel method to address these data gaps in dermatology.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the utility of expert elicitation (EE) for estimating unknown dermatological parameters.
  • To estimate the prevalence of psoriasis in the adult Canadian population.
  • To determine the distribution of psoriasis severity based on body surface area (BSA).

Main Methods:

  • A panel of 11 Canadian dermatologists with psoriasis expertise was convened.
  • Expert estimates for psoriasis prevalence and BSA severity distribution were collected.
  • Bayesian methods were employed to consolidate expert estimates and model uncertainty.

Main Results:

  • The Bayesian median estimate for adult psoriasis prevalence was 3.0% (95% CI, 2.7-3.3%).
  • Expert elicitation indicated that approximately 50% of psoriasis patients have <3% BSA involvement.
  • Further, 78% of patients have <10% BSA involvement, with only 2% having >50% BSA involvement.

Conclusions:

  • Expert elicitation yielded psoriasis prevalence estimates with narrow distributions, aligning with existing literature.
  • The EE approach proved valuable in dermatology for areas with limited or uncertain evidence.
  • This method can complement existing data to inform clinical decision-making.