Coordinated Strategy for a Model-Based Decision Support Tool for Coronavirus Disease, Utah, USA

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Mathematical Modeling

Background:

• The coronavirus disease pandemic underscored the critical role of epidemiologic models in public health decision-making.
• Accurate outbreak potential estimates are vital when data is scarce and urgent decisions are required.

Purpose of the Study:

• To document Utah's integrated modeling response during the early stages of the coronavirus disease pandemic.
• To describe the adaptation of standard epidemiologic models and harmonization of outputs across modeling groups.
• To detail the collaborative process involving technical experts, public health officials, and policymakers.

Main Methods:

• Adapted a standard epidemiologic model for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak assessment.
• Harmonized outputs from multiple modeling groups to ensure consistency.
• Maintained continuous dialogue with government policymakers at various levels.

Main Results:

• Facilitated an evidence-based public health response in Utah during the first wave of the pandemic.
• Enabled timely and coordinated public health recommendations and interventions.
• Demonstrated the value of integrated modeling in a crisis.

Conclusions:

• The integrated modeling framework supported Utah's pandemic response and can be applied to other public health challenges.
• Collaboration between modelers, public health officials, and policymakers is key to effective crisis management.
• This approach provides a scalable model for addressing future public health emergencies.