High-Efficiency Machine Learning Method for Identifying Foodborne Disease Outbreaks and Confounding Factors

The China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment (CFSA) uses the Foodborne Disease Monitoring and Reporting System (FDMRS) to monitor outbreaks of foodborne diseases across the country. However, there are problems of underreporting or erroneous reporting in FDMRS, which significantly increase the cost of related epidemic investigations. To solve this problem, we designed a model to identify suspected outbreaks from the data generated by the FDMRS of CFSA. In this study, machine learning models were used to fit the data. The recall rate and F1-score were used as evaluation metrics to compare the classification performance of each model. Feature importance and pathogenic factors were identified and analyzed using tree-based and gradient boosting models. Three real foodborne disease outbreaks were then used to evaluate the best performing model. Furthermore, the SHapley Additive exPlanation value was used to identify the effect of features. Among all machine learning classification models, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model achieved the best performance, with the highest recall rate and F1-score of 0.9699 and 0.9582, respectively. In terms of model validation, the model provides a correct judgment of real outbreaks. In the feature importance analysis with the XGBoost model, the health status of the other people with the same exposure has the highest weight, reaching 0.65. The machine learning model built in this study exhibits high accuracy in recognizing foodborne disease outbreaks, thus reducing the manual burden for medical staff. The model helped us identify the confounding factors of foodborne disease outbreaks. Attention should be paid not only to the health status of those with the same exposure but also to the similarity of the cases in time and space.