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Forecasting Trachoma Control and Identifying Transmission-Hotspots.
Seth Blumberg1,2, Joaquin M Prada3, Christine Tedijanto1
1Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Summary
Significant progress has been made in eliminating trachoma. Current interventions are projected to reduce trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, but some areas require enhanced treatment to control transmission.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology
- Ophthalmology
Background:
- Trachoma elimination efforts have progressed significantly globally.
- Trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) remains prevalent in certain regions, hindering complete eradication.
- Understanding TF prevalence dynamics is crucial for targeted interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify progress in reducing trachoma prevalence.
- To forecast the evolution of TF prevalence under current intervention strategies.
- To identify districts with a high probability of being trachoma transmission-hotspots.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the GET2020 global repository for trachoma prevalence data.
- Employed regression analysis of a fitted exponential distribution to forecast TF prevalence.
- Extrapolated the probability of transmission-hotspots from regression residuals.
Main Results:
- Forecasts indicate 96.5% of districts may achieve <5% TF prevalence in children (1-9 years) by 2030.
- Districts with TF prevalence below 20% are unlikely to be transmission-hotspots.
- TF prevalence over 28% (2016-2019) correlates with a ≥50% probability of being a transmission-hotspot.
Conclusions:
- Sustainable control of trachoma is achievable with current strategies.
- Transmission-hotspots resistant to mass drug administration require intensified treatment.
- Enhanced interventions are necessary in specific areas to achieve local trachoma control.
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