Predicting Adaptations to Resistance Training Plus Overfeeding Using Bayesian Regression: A Preliminary Investigation

Relatively few investigations have reported purposeful overfeeding in resistance-trained adults. This preliminary study examined potential predictors of resistance training (RT) adaptations during a period of purposeful overfeeding and RT. Resistance-trained males (n = 28; n = 21 completers) were assigned to 6 weeks of supervised RT and daily consumption of a high-calorie protein/carbohydrate supplement with a target body mass (BM) gain of ≥0.45 kg·wk^-1. At baseline and post-intervention, body composition was evaluated via 4-component (4C) model and ultrasonography. Additional assessments of resting metabolism and muscular performance were performed. Accelerometry and automated dietary interviews estimated physical activity levels and nutrient intake before and during the intervention. Bayesian regression methods were employed to examine potential predictors of changes in body composition, muscular performance, and metabolism. A simplified regression model with only rate of BM gain as a predictor was also developed. Increases in 4C whole-body fat-free mass (FFM; (mean ± SD) 4.8 ± 2.6%), muscle thickness (4.5 ± 5.9% for elbow flexors; 7.4 ± 8.4% for knee extensors), and muscular performance were observed in nearly all individuals. However, changes in outcome variables could generally not be predicted with precision. Bayes R² values for the models ranged from 0.18 to 0.40, and other metrics also indicated relatively poor predictive performance. On average, a BM gain of ~0.55%/week corresponded with a body composition score ((∆FFM/∆BM)*100) of 100, indicative of all BM gained as FFM. However, meaningful variability around this estimate was observed. This study offers insight regarding the complex interactions between the RT stimulus, overfeeding, and putative predictors of RT adaptations.