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Certainty-Based Marking on Multiple-Choice Items: Psychometrics Meets Decision Theory.

Qian Wu1, Monique Vanerum2, Anouk Agten2

  • 1Center for Educational Effectiveness and Evaluation, KU Leuven, Dekenstraat 2, bus 3773, 3000, Leuven, Belgium.

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Summary

Certainty-based marking (CBM) helps assess knowledge but can be influenced by risk attitudes. Students often under-report certainty when confident and over-report when uncertain, affecting test scoring.

Keywords:
IRTcertainty-based markingcumulative prospect theoryhierarchical Bayesian estimationmultiple-choice questions

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Area of Science:

  • Educational Psychology
  • Psychometrics
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Traditional multiple-choice tests cannot distinguish knowledge from uncertainty.
  • Certainty-based marking (CBM) incorporates examinee certainty into scoring.
  • Prospect theory suggests risk attitudes influence decision-making, potentially impacting CBM.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate response behaviors in Certainty-based marking (CBM) among physiotherapy students.
  • To integrate psychometric modeling with decision-making theory to analyze CBM.
  • To understand how risk attitudes affect certainty reporting in a CBM context.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized item response theory to model the probability of correct responses.
  • Applied cumulative prospect theory to estimate examinee risk attitudes.
  • Conducted a case study with 334 first-year physiotherapy students across six CBM examinations.

Main Results:

  • Student certainty levels in CBM were significantly influenced by their risk attitudes.
  • Risk-averse and loss-averse students tended to under-report certainty with high success probabilities.
  • Risk-seeking students tended to over-report certainty with low success probabilities.

Conclusions:

  • Risk attitudes play a crucial role in how students report certainty under CBM scoring.
  • The findings highlight a potential bias in CBM due to non-rational decision-making.
  • Understanding these behaviors is key to refining CBM for more accurate assessment.