Prediction of Relapse After Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Cessation in Crohn's Disease: Individual Participant Data...

Tools for stratification of relapse risk of Crohn's disease (CD) after anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy cessation are needed. We aimed to validate a previously developed prediction model from the diSconTinuation in CrOhn's disease patients in stable Remission on combined therapy with Immunosuppressants (STORI) trial, and to develop an updated model.

Cohort studies were selected that reported on anti-TNF cessation in 30 or more CD patients in remission. Individual participant data were requested for luminal CD patients and anti-TNF treatment duration of 6 months or longer. The discriminative ability (concordance-statistic [C-statistic]) and calibration (agreement between observed and predicted risks) were explored for the STORI model. Next, an updated prognostic model was constructed, with performance assessment by cross-validation.

This individual participant data meta-analysis included 1317 patients from 14 studies in 11 countries. Relapses after anti-TNF cessation occurred in 632 of 1317 patients after a median of 13 months. The pooled 1-year relapse rate was 38%. The STORI prediction model showed poor discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.51). The updated model reached a moderate discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.59), and included clinical symptoms at cessation (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4), younger age at diagnosis (HR, 1.5 for A1 (age at diagnosis ≤16 years) vs A2 (age at diagnosis 17 - 40 years); 95% CI, 1.11-1.89), no concomitant immunosuppressants (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.18-172), smoking (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.15-1.67), second line anti-TNF (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69), upper gastrointestinal tract involvement (HR, 1.3 for L4 vs non-L4; 95% CI, 0.96-1.79), adalimumab (HR, 1.22 vs infliximab; 95% CI, 0.99-1.50), age at cessation (HR, 1.2 per 10 years younger; 95% CI, 1-1.33), C-reactive protein (HR, 1.04 per doubling; 95% CI, 1.00-1.08), and longer disease duration (HR, 1.07 per 5 years; 95% CI, 0.98-1.17). In subanalysis, the discriminative ability of the model improved by adding fecal calprotectin (C-statistic, 0.63).

This updated prediction model showed a reasonable discriminative ability, exceeding the performance of a previously published model. It might be useful to guide clinical decisions on anti-TNF therapy cessation in CD patients after further validation.