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The perfect storm. An analysis of the processes that increase lethal violence in Mexico after 2006

Iván Flores Martínez1,2, Matthew Phillips1,2

  • 1Public Policy Program, UNCC, Charlotte, NC USA.

Trends in Organized Crime
|May 3, 2021
PubMed

Insights

Mexico's War on Drugs: Military interventions may not be the sole driver of lethal violence. Other factors like resource competition and governance significantly impact homicide rates, suggesting a need for broader analysis.

Area of Science:

  • Criminology
  • Political Science
  • Sociology

Background:

  • The "War on Drugs" in Mexico has been linked to increased lethal violence.
  • Previous research often overlooks other contributing factors to violence dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the influence of factors beyond military interventions on lethal violence in Mexican municipalities.
  • To re-evaluate the impact of military interventions by accounting for concurrent drivers of violence.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of lethal violence, measured by the young male homicide rate.
  • Statistical examination of the association between military interventions, seasonality, resource competition, and political governance (PAN) with violence levels.

Main Results:

  • Seasonality, competition for scarce resources, and PAN's governance are associated with higher lethal violence rates.
  • These factors appear to influence the relative impact of military interventions on violence.

Conclusions:

  • The effect of military interventions on lethal violence in Mexican municipalities may be overestimated in existing literature.
  • A comprehensive understanding of violence requires considering multiple drivers, including socio-economic and political factors, alongside security policies.
Keywords:
DTO’s competitionDrug related violenceMilitary InterventionsOrganized Crime in MexicoSeasonality in Violence

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