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'Dunbar's number' deconstructed.

Patrik Lindenfors1,2, Andreas Wartel2, Johan Lind2

  • 1Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, 101 31 Stockholm, Sweden.

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|May 5, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Dunbar's number suggests humans can maintain 150 relationships. However, statistical analyses show this cognitive limit is not supported, with estimates varying widely and confidence intervals too broad to be meaningful.

Keywords:
brain evolutionmammalsphylogenetic comparative studiesprimatessocial evolution

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary anthropology
  • Cognitive science
  • Primatology

Background:

  • The popular concept of Dunbar's number posits a cognitive limit of approximately 150 stable social relationships for humans.
  • This number is derived from the relationship between neocortex size and group size in primates.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To statistically evaluate the validity of Dunbar's number as a cognitive limit for human social group size.
  • To investigate the reliability of using primate neocortex size regressions to predict human social capacity.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of complementary datasets using Bayesian phylogenetic methods.
  • Application of generalized least-squares phylogenetic methods.
  • Examination of statistical support for a fixed cognitive limit on human group size.

Main Results:

  • Different analytical methods produced widely divergent estimates for average human group size (e.g., 69-109 and 16-42).
  • Enormous 95% confidence intervals were associated with these estimates (e.g., 4-520 and 2-336).
  • The wide confidence intervals indicate the futility of specifying a single number for cognitive limits.

Conclusions:

  • The data do not support deriving a definitive cognitive limit on human group size from neocortex size regressions.
  • The concept of Dunbar's number, as a precise cognitive limit, lacks robust statistical backing.
  • Further research is needed to understand the complexities of human social cognition and group size dynamics.