Effect of Massachusetts House Bill No. 4196 on electronic cigarette use: a mixed-methods study

Electronic cigarettes, or e-cigarettes, are devices that deliver nicotine-containing aerosol and were used by 2.8% of American adults in 2017. Many people who smoke cigarettes have used e-cigarettes for smoking cessation, and the general consensus among health providers is that while vaping is not harmless, it is less harmful than smoking. To try to reduce youth e-cigarette use, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts imposed a 75% excise tax on nicotine-containing vaping products and banned the sale of all flavored tobacco products, including combustible tobacco, effective June 1, 2020. This tax, like similar taxes in other states, aimed to reduce e-cigarette consumption. However, past research has found that e-cigarettes and cigarettes are economic substitutes, meaning that an increase in e-cigarettes prices may push more people who smoke e-cigarettes to smoke combustible cigarettes.

To determine the impacts of several events, such as the e-cigarette and vaping-associated lung injury (EVALI) outbreak and implementation of the Massachusetts e-cigarette tax, on e-cigarette and cigarette purchasing, we conducted an interrupted time-series analysis of year-on-year consumer purchasing data to impute changes in e-cigarette and cigarette purchasing in the Greater Boston area and the entire USA after several intervention points. We then surveyed a subset of people who used e-cigarettes to evaluate the plausibility that some e-cigarette consumers would travel out-of-state to purchase e-cigarettes.

The purchasing data indicated that there was no significant decrease in e-cigarette purchases in the Greater Boston convenience market after tax implementation. However, we found that e-cigarette purchases decreased significantly while cigarette purchases increased after several bans on e-cigarettes and numerous policy statements related to the EVALI outbreak. The survey results suggested that people who smoke e-cigarettes did not decrease their consumption after the implementation of the tax, but instead obtained e-cigarettes outside of Massachusetts.

These results suggest that the Massachusetts flavor ban and tax did not reduce e-cigarette consumption in the Greater Boston area, and that messaging questioning the safety of e-cigarettes led to an increase in combustible cigarette use. This suggests the need for health authorities to reconsider how they communicate the relative risks of smoking and vaping.