Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Infectious Disease Control
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic revealed global vulnerability to novel infectious diseases.
• Social distancing (lockdown) measures in the UK successfully reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission (R < 1).
• A large susceptible population remains, posing risk for future outbreaks upon control relaxation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To determine the optimal vaccination targeting strategy in the UK.
• To minimize future COVID-19-related deaths and Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY) losses.

Main Methods:

• Modeling of vaccination strategies within the UK population.
• Analysis of various vaccine efficacy and transmission-blocking assumptions.
• Evaluation of outcomes based on minimizing mortality and QALY deficits.

Main Results:

• Targeting vaccination towards older age groups is identified as the optimal strategy.
• This strategy may be sufficient to halt the epidemic under specific conditions.
• Optimal strategy effectiveness is contingent on vaccine efficacy and its ability to prevent transmission.

Conclusions:

• Prioritizing vaccination for older populations is crucial for mitigating COVID-19 impact.
• Vaccine-induced transmission reduction is a key factor in epidemic control.
• Vaccination is the primary foreseeable method for containing COVID-19 and restoring normal societal interactions.