How social networks affect the repression-dissent puzzle.
Shane Steinert-Threlkeld1, Zachary Steinert-Threlkeld2
1Department of Linguistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.
Plos One
|May 6, 2021
Summary
The repression-dissent puzzle, often unexplained, may stem from statistical sampling issues. Simulations show repression
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- Political Science
- Sociology
Background:
- The relationship between state repression and protest size is complex and yields inconsistent findings.
- Existing theoretical resolutions have not fully solved the "repression-dissent puzzle."
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the repression-dissent puzzle using social network simulations.
- To propose statistical sampling as a source of the observed inconsistencies.
Main Methods:
- Simulated the spread of protest on social networks under varying levels of state repression.
- Analyzed the correlation between repression strength and protest size across different network structures and sample sizes.
Main Results:
- Simulations demonstrated that even when repression is designed to decrease protest, its strength can correlate with protest size changes (decrease, increase, or no change).
- Contradictory results were most pronounced when repression rates mirrored real-world data.
- The observed inconsistencies are attributed to the nature of statistical sampling.
Conclusions:
- The repression-dissent puzzle may be an artifact of statistical sampling methods rather than solely reflecting protester or state behavior.
- Future research on protests should prioritize collecting network data to better understand these dynamics.
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