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Detection of Hostile Intent by Spatial Movements.

Colleen E Patton¹, Christopher D Wickens¹, C A P Smith¹

¹3447 Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA.

|May 7, 2021

Summary

Humans struggle to detect hostile ships based on movement alone, especially when movements are unpredictable. Decision aids are needed to improve threat identification in complex scenarios.

Keywords:

attentional processes decision-making intention ship navigation uncertainty visual search

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Area of Science:

Cognitive psychology
Human-computer interaction
Maritime security

Background:

Detecting hostile intentions from vessel movements is crucial for maritime safety and security.
Understanding baseline human capabilities in threat detection is essential for developing effective countermeasures.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate human ability to infer hostile intentions from the movement patterns of computer-controlled vessels.
To assess how varying levels of movement uncertainty affect threat detection accuracy.

Main Methods:

Participants identified hostile ships exhibiting 'shadowing' or 'hunting' behaviors among six other vessels.
Movement uncertainty was manipulated across three levels: 0%, 25%, and 50% randomness.
Trials involved up to 35 moves, requiring participants to identify the hostile ship and its behavior.

Main Results:

Baseline detection accuracy was low (approx. 60%) even without movement variability.
Increased movement randomness significantly decreased detection rates.
Detection of 'hunting' behavior was hindered by distance, unlike 'shadowing'.
Varied movement strategies, including consecutive moves, aided detection.

Conclusions:

Identifying threats solely by movement is challenging, particularly when uncertainty is employed by adversaries.
Human performance in threat detection necessitates the development of decision support tools.
Findings underscore the need for advanced systems to aid human operators in complex maritime environments.