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The emerging epidemic of inflammatory bowel disease in Asia and Iran by 2035: A modeling study
Meysam Olfatifar1, Mohammad Reza Zali2, Mohamad Amin Pourhoseingholi1
1Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Background:
The projection studies are imperative to satisfy demands for health care systems and proper response to the public health problems such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).
Methods:
To accomplish this, we established an illness-death model based on available data to project the future prevalence of IBD in Asia, Iran in particular, separately from 2017 to 2035. We applied two deterministic and stochastic approaches.
Results:
In 2035, as compared to 2020, we expected a 2.5-fold rise in prevalence for Iran with 69 thousand cases, a 2.3-fold increment for North Africa and the Middle East with 220 thousand cases, quadrupling of the prevalence for India with 2.2 million cases, a 1.5-fold increase for East Asia region with 4.5 million cases, and a 1.6-fold elevation in prevalence for high-income Asia-Pacific and Southeast Asia regions with 183 and 199 thousand cases respectively.
Conclusions:
Our results showed an emerging epidemic for the prevalence of IBD in Asia regions and/or countries. Hence, we suggest the need for immediate action to control this increasing trend in Asia and Iran. However, we were virtually unable to use information about age groups, gender, and other factors influencing the evolution of IBD in our model due to lack of access to reliable data.
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