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Inferring Chronic Wasting Disease Incidence from Prevalence Data
Michael W Miller1, Lisa L Wolfe1
1Colorado Division of Parks and Wildlife, 4330 Laporte Avenue, Fort Collins, Colorado 80521-2153, USA.
Journal of Wildlife Diseases
|May 7, 2021
Summary
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection incidence strongly correlates with apparent prevalence in mule deer herds. This suggests monitoring prevalence can effectively track CWD epidemic dynamics in wild populations.
Area of Science:
- Wildlife ecology
- Veterinary epidemiology
- Disease dynamics
Background:
- Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a significant threat to cervid populations.
- Understanding CWD transmission is crucial for effective management strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the relationship between CWD infection incidence and apparent prevalence in mule deer.
- To determine if apparent prevalence can serve as a reliable indicator of CWD epidemic dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of data from seven mule deer herds in Colorado and Wyoming.
- Statistical correlation analysis (r≥0.944) between incidence and apparent prevalence.
- Consideration of monitoring method consistency and contextual factors.
Main Results:
- A strong, positive correlation was observed between CWD infection incidence and apparent prevalence in both female and male mule deer.
- The correlation coefficient (r≥0.944) indicates a highly reliable relationship.
Conclusions:
- Apparent prevalence is a justifiable and reliable metric for inferring underlying CWD epidemic dynamics in mule deer herds.
- Monitoring prevalence trends can effectively inform CWD management and conservation efforts.
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