Cost-Effectiveness of Management Algorithms for Lung-RADS Category 4 Nodules

To evaluate nodule management guidelines in a simulated cohort of Lung Reporting and Data System (Lung-RADS) 4 nodules based on real-world data.

In this retrospective study, 100 000 patients were simulated from 151 patients with Lung-RADS 4 nodules (from January 2010 to August 2018). Each patient in the simulation was managed with each algorithm, and health outcomes were accumulated based on interventions and delays to cancer diagnosis. If the algorithm missed a cancer, it was diagnosed at the next annual screening round, although it would grow in the interim. Patient age-specific or cancer-specific mortality was assigned depending on whether the nodule was malignant, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated. Costs of interventions and cancer treatment were accumulated. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed.

The most effective algorithm was the British Thoracic Society (BTS; 10.041 QALYs), followed by the American College of Chest Physicians (10.035 QALYs) and Lung-RADS (10.021 QALYs). Only the BTS and Lung-RADS were on the efficient frontier, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $52 634 (95% CI: $45 122, $60 619). Under nearly all sensitivity analyses, the only algorithms on the efficient frontier were BTS and Lung-RADS. The ICERs for BTS versus Lung-RADS were under $100 000 for all scenarios except an increased life expectancy in patients without cancer, in which case the ICER was $109 273.

The BTS algorithm and Lung-RADS were cost-effective for managing category 4 nodules, with BTS yielding greater QALYs.Supplemental material is available for this article.© RSNA, 2021See also the commentary by Elicker in this issue.