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ANEMI3: An updated tool for global change analysis.

Patrick A Breach1, Slobodan P Simonovic1

  • 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University, London, Canada.

Plos One
|May 10, 2021
PubMed
Summary

The ANEMI3 model integrates water resources into global change analysis using system dynamics. It simulates long-term feedbacks from energy-economy, climate, and nutrient cycles for sustainable water supply strategies.

Area of Science:

  • Earth System Science
  • Integrated Assessment Modeling
  • Environmental Systems Analysis

Background:

  • Global change is driven by complex interactions between population, climate, economy, and resource use.
  • Water resource security is a critical challenge within global change dynamics.
  • Previous models lacked integrated approaches to water, energy, and economic systems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce ANEMI3, an enhanced integrated assessment model for global change.
  • To analyze long-term global feedbacks, particularly concerning water resources.
  • To provide a framework for scenario analysis of global change issues.

Main Methods:

  • System dynamics simulation principles applied to Earth system analysis.
  • Parameter estimation and model testing for ANEMI3.

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  • Integration of energy-economy systems, water supply sectors, climate change impacts, and nutrient cycles.

    • Main Results:

    • ANEMI3 incorporates energy-economy dynamics and water supply as a parallel economic sector.
    • Climate change effects on land yield and arable land are included.
    • Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles are added as water quality indicators impacting surface water supplies.

    Conclusions:

    • ANEMI3 captures long-term global change trends through endogenous feedback mechanisms.
    • The model offers an integrated approach to water supply development considering economic and environmental factors.
    • Its simplified structure aids in identifying key driving feedbacks within the Earth system.