Combining hepatic surface nodularity and serum tests better predicts hepatic fibrosis stages in chronic liver disease

Hepatic surface nodularity quantified on CT images has shown promising results in staging hepatic fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C. The aim of this study was to evaluate hepatic surface nodularity, serum fibrosis indices, and a linear combination of them for staging fibrosis in chronic liver disease, mainly chronic hepatitis B.

We developed a semiautomated software quantifying hepatic surface nodularity on CT images. Hepatic surface nodularity and serum fibrosis indices were assessed in the development group of 125 patients to generate 3 linear models combining hepatic surface nodularity with the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, fibrosis-4 index, or platelet count in reference to the METAVIR scoring system. The models were validated in 183 patients.

Hepatic surface nodularity and serum fibrosis indices all significantly correlated with fibrosis stages. For binary classifications into cirrhosis (F4), advanced fibrosis (≥ F3), and significant fibrosis (≥ F2), hepatic surface nodularity was significantly different across categories. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the best model were 0.901, 0.872, and 0.794 for cirrhosis, advanced fibrosis, and significant fibrosis, respectively, higher than serum fibrosis indices alone (0.797-0.802, 0.799-0.818, and 0.761-0.773). In the validation group, the same model likewise showed higher AUCs (0.872, 0.831, and 0.850) compared to serum fibrosis indices (0.722-0.776, 0.692-0.768, and 0.695-0.769; p < 0.001 for F4).

Hepatic surface nodularity combined with serum blood test could be a practical method to predict cirrhosis, advanced fibrosis, and significant fibrosis in chronic liver disease patients, providing higher accuracy than using serum fibrosis indices alone.