Priority effects and the macroevolutionary dynamics of biodiversity

Priority effects can play a fundamental role in the assembly of ecological communities, but how they shape the dynamics of biodiversity over macroevolutionary timescales remains unclear. Here we develop and analyse a metacommunity model combining local priority effects with niche evolution, speciation and extinction. We show that by promoting the persistence of rare species, local priority effects cause the evolution of higher metacommunity diversity as well as major disparities in richness among evolutionary lineages. However, we also show how classic macroevolutionary patterns of niche incumbency-whereby rates of regional diversification and invasion slow down as ecological niches are filled-do not depend on local priority effects, arising even when invading species continuously displace residents. Together, these results clarify the connection between local priority effects and the filling of ecological niche space, and reveal how the impact of species arrival order on competition fundamentally shapes the generation and maintenance of biodiversity.