COVID-19 modelling in the Caribbean: Spatial and statistical assessments

The novel COVID-19 disease has highlighted the vulnerability of small and developing economies in managing what is now a global health crisis. This study presents the preliminary overview of the dynamics of the spread and expansion of COVID-19 as the disease takes its footprint in the Caribbean. The study explored the spatial clusters of the disease and its variations in the Caribbean region. Data was gathered from the World Health Organization reports and collated into a cross sectional data set. Spatial mapping and spatial lag analysis were conducted to identify spread patterns and statistical relationships with several relevant socioeconomic variables. Models showed the prominence of cases and deaths in the Caribbean region have a spatial connection with mainland countries. The models also show the connection between COVID-19 cases and deaths and the availability of medical services within the country. Results also showed similar social distancing policies adopted in the region and the possible connection between prevalence of diabetes and hypertension regionally impacted the number of deaths. It is hoped that the findings presented here will be useful in planning for an epidemiological response for the region based on the differences in the patterns for possible interventions and actions.