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COVID-19 modelling in the Caribbean: Spatial and statistical assessments
Stephan Moonsammy1, Temitope D Timothy Oyedotun2, Donna-Marie Renn-Moonsammy3
1Department of Environmental Studies, University of Guyana, P. O. Box 10 1110, Turkeyen Campus, Greater Georgetown, Guyana.
Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology
|May 13, 2021
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic revealed vulnerabilities in small economies. This study maps the spread of COVID-19 in the Caribbean, linking cases and deaths to mainland proximity and healthcare access.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of small and developing economies in managing global health crises.
- Understanding the specific dynamics of disease spread within vulnerable regions like the Caribbean is crucial for effective public health strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide a preliminary overview of COVID-19 spread dynamics in the Caribbean.
- To explore spatial clusters and variations of the disease across the region.
- To identify socioeconomic factors influencing COVID-19 transmission and mortality.
Main Methods:
- Data collection from World Health Organization reports.
- Cross-sectional data collation.
- Spatial mapping and spatial lag analysis to identify spread patterns and correlations.
Main Results:
- COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Caribbean show a spatial correlation with mainland countries.
- Disease prevalence is linked to the availability of medical services within Caribbean nations.
- Regional social distancing policies and the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension may influence mortality rates.
Conclusions:
- Findings highlight the interconnectedness of Caribbean nations with mainland regions regarding disease spread.
- Healthcare infrastructure and pre-existing health conditions are significant factors in COVID-19 outcomes.
- The study provides a basis for tailored epidemiological responses and interventions in the Caribbean.
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