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A prediction model of risk factors for complications among SARS-CoV2 positive patients: Cases from Jordan
Mohanad M Odeh1, Rami Al Qaissieh2, Amjed A Tarifi2
1Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmacy Practice, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, The Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan.
Insights
This study identified key risk factors for severe COVID-19 in Jordan, including diabetes, fever, and shortness of breath. These findings help predict complications in Middle Eastern patients.
Area of Science:
- Medical Research
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- COVID-19 cases surged in the Middle East, necessitating risk factor identification for patient prioritization.
- Understanding risk factors is crucial for managing severe COVID-19 and allocating resources effectively.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop the first bespoke prediction model for COVID-19 complications in the Middle East.
- To identify key predictors of severe outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Jordan.
Main Methods:
- A case-control study compared recovered patients with those experiencing complications.
- Multivariable logistic regression was used to build the prediction model.
- Complications included ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, sepsis, respiratory failure, and death.
Main Results:
- Diabetes (OR=59.7), fever (OR=24.8), and shortness of breath (OR=15.9) were significant risk factors.
- Higher body mass index (OR=0.74) and abnormal neutrophils (OR=16.8) also correlated with complications.
- The prediction model was statistically significant (χ²(5) = 86.1, p < 0.0005).
Conclusions:
- Diabetes, fever, shortness of breath, BMI, and abnormal neutrophils are key predictors of COVID-19 complications in Jordan.
- Comorbidities and patient health status, not age, were primary risk factors.
- Hydroxychloroquine treatment showed no protective effect against COVID-19 complications.
Background:
The number of COVID-19 infected patients has been soaring in the Middle East countries. The disease poses a significant threat, decisions about prioritizing care should be made in accordance with the proven risk factors for complications.
Objective:
The present study provides the first bespoke prediction model in the Middle East to identify COVID-19 patients, who are at higher risk for complications.
Method:
A case-control study design was adopted to compare the characteristics of successfully recovered patients with those who had complications. Complications were defined as admission to the intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, sepsis or septic shock, pneumonia or respiratory failure, and death. The prediction model was created through multivariable logistic regression. Overall statistical significance tests for the model were carried out.
Results:
All COVID-19 infected hospitalized patients (n = 133) in Amman - Jordan were included in the study. Successfully recovered were 125 patients. The median age (IRQ) was 26 (10-40). Almost 30% were >40 years. Patients with complications were eight patients, age 63 (51.5-71.5). The prediction model identified the following variables as risk factors: diabetes (OR = 59.7; 95% CI: 3.5-1011.5, p = 0.005), fever (OR = 24.8; 95% CI: 1.4-447.3, p = 0.029), SHORTNESS OF BREATH (OR = 15.9; 95% CI: 1.3-189.7, p = 0.029), body mass index (OR = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.61-0.88, p = 0.001), abnormal Neutrophils (OR = 16.8; 95% CI: 1.0-292.0, p = 0.053). Prediction model was statistically significant, χ2(5) = 86.1, p < 0.0005.
Conclusions:
Unlike reports from China, the most influential variables that led to disease progression in Jordanian patients were diabetes, fever, shortness of breath, body mass index, and abnormal neutrophils. Similar to reports from the USA, smoking was not a leading factor for complications. Comorbidities and patient health status, rather than age, were the primary risk factors for complications. Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine showed no protective effect.