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Updated: Nov 5, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Watersheds may not recover from drought
Tim J Peterson1,2, M Saft2, M C Peel2
1Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia. tim.peterson@monash.edu.
Abstract:
The Millennium Drought (southeastern Australia) provided a natural experiment to challenge the assumption that watershed streamflow always recovers from drought. Seven years after the drought, the runoff (as a fraction of precipitation) had not recovered in 37% of watersheds, and the number of recovered watersheds was not increasing. When recovery did occur, it was not explained by watershed wetness. For those watersheds not recovered, ~80% showed no evidence of recovering soon, suggesting persistence within a low-runoff state. The post-drought precipitation not going to runoff was found to be likely going to increased evapotranspiration per unit of precipitation. These findings show that watersheds can have a finite resilience to disturbances and suggest that hydrological droughts can persist indefinitely after meteorological droughts.
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