Ecosystem services show variable responses to future climate conditions in the Colombian páramos

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Conservation Science

Background:

• Páramo ecosystems in the northern Andes are biodiversity hotspots.
• These ecosystems provide essential services to local communities and urban areas.
• Climate change poses a significant but unclear threat to páramo ecosystem services.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the impact of future climate change on páramo ecosystem services in Boyacá, Colombia.
• To identify key plant species supporting these services and model their climate niches.

Main Methods:

• Conducted a literature review to identify 103 key plant species in Boyacá páramos.
• Utilized climate niche modeling with a Mahalanobis distance approach for current and future climate scenarios.

Main Results:

• Projected overall reduction in area for most ecosystem services (10-40%).
• Varied responses observed, with some services showing increases and others substantial negative impacts (e.g., human food).
• Ecosystem service responses are complex due to multiple species involvement and unknown functional redundancy.

Conclusions:

• Urgent need for expanded research on páramo ecosystem services and species redundancy.
• Results are critical for developing sustainable strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on mountain livelihoods.
• Informs decision-makers and conservation organizations for effective páramo management.