Bootstrap methods can help evaluate monitoring program performance to inform restoration as part of an adaptive...

The objective of many fish and wildlife restoration programs is to utilize management actions to change the state of a system. Because restoration programs are often expensive, iteratively assessing whether the restoration is having the desired outcome is a critical aspect of learning how to inform ongoing and sampling designs to evaluate proposed restoration programs. We provide an example of how we are using data resampling as part of an adaptive restoration process to test the effectiveness of a restoration action and associated monitoring program to restore the degraded Lone Cabbage oyster reef in Suwannee Sound, Florida in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. We use a resampling framework through simulations to inform the progress of the restoration efforts by examining the direction and magnitude of the differences in live oyster counts between restored and unrestored (wild) reefs over time. In addition, we evaluated the effort (number of sites sampled) needed to determine the effect of restoration to understand how many surveys should be conducted in subsequent sampling seasons. These efforts allow us to provide timely insight into the effectiveness of both our monitoring efforts and restoration strategy which is of critical importance not only to the restoration of Lone Cabbage Reef but to larger restoration efforts within the Gulf of Mexico as part of the consolidated Deepwater Horizon settlements and funded restoration efforts.