Subgrouping by gene expression profiles to improve relapse risk prediction in paediatric B-precursor acute...

Relapsed acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) remains a prevalent paediatric cancer and one of the most common causes of mortality from malignancy in children. Tailoring the intensity of therapy according to early stratification is a promising strategy but remains a major challenge due to heterogeneity and subtyping difficulty. In this study, we subgroup B-precursor ALL patients by gene expression profiles, using non-negative matrix factorization and minimum description length which unsupervisedly determines the number of subgroups. Within each of the four subgroups, logistic and Cox regression with elastic net regularization are used to build models predicting minimal residual disease (MRD) and relapse-free survival (RFS) respectively. Measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), subgrouping improves prediction of MRD in one subgroup which mostly overlaps with subtype TCF3-PBX1 (AUC = 0·986 in the training set and 1·0 in the test set), compared to a global model published previously. The models predicting RFS displayed acceptable concordance in training set and discriminate high-relapse-risk patients in three subgroups of the test set (Wilcoxon test p = 0·048, 0·036, and 0·016). Genes playing roles in the models are specific to different subgroups. The improvement of subgrouped MRD prediction and the differences of genes in prediction models of subgroups suggest that the heterogeneity of B-precursor ALL can be handled by subgrouping according to gene expression profiles to improve the prediction accuracy.