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Characterization of Complex Systems Using the Design of Experiments Approach: Transient Protein Expression in Tobacco as a Case Study
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Characterization of Complex Systems Using the Design of Experiments Approach: Transient Protein Expression in Tobacco as a Case Study

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A strategy to improve expert technology forecasts.

Tamara Savage1, Alex Davis1, Baruch Fischhoff1

  • 1Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|May 15, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Expert technology forecasts are often inaccurate and overconfident. A new hybrid approach combining technical experts with policy and adoption experts may improve forecast accuracy and reduce overconfidence.

Keywords:
debiasingexpert elicitationoverconfidencetechnology forecasting

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Nov 5, 2025

Characterization of Complex Systems Using the Design of Experiments Approach: Transient Protein Expression in Tobacco as a Case Study
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Published on: January 31, 2014

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Area of Science:

  • Technology Forecasting
  • Expert Elicitation
  • Decision Analysis

Background:

  • Technology forecasts are crucial for decision-making but often lack accuracy.
  • Expert predictions frequently exhibit overconfidence, with outcomes outside predicted ranges.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and evaluate a hybrid expert elicitation approach for improving technology forecasts.
  • To systematically incorporate broader societal, policy, and economic factors into forecasting.

Main Methods:

  • Iteratively combining judgments from technical experts and experts in technology adoption/public policy.
  • Conducting a pilot study to assess the impact of broader factor briefings on forecasters.

Main Results:

  • Forecasters receiving briefings on policy, economic, and social factors produced wider forecast intervals.
  • The hybrid approach aims to mitigate overconfidence and improve forecast reliability.

Conclusions:

  • A hybrid expert elicitation method shows promise for more robust technology forecasting.
  • Systematic consideration of non-technical factors is essential for accurate future predictions.