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Modelling personal cautiousness during the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study for Turkey and Italy
Hatice Bulut1, Meltem Gölgeli1, Fatihcan M Atay2
1Department of Mathematics, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Ankara, Turkey.
Personal cautiousness significantly impacts the spread of COVID-19. Mathematical modeling highlights that individual adherence to safety measures is crucial for controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- COVID-19 pandemic necessitates public health interventions like social distancing and mask-wearing.
- Individual adherence to these measures varies due to differing risk perceptions and beliefs in efficacy.
- Understanding factors influencing adherence is critical for pandemic control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a mathematical model incorporating personal cautiousness in the context of COVID-19.
- To analyze the impact of varying levels of personal cautiousness on disease transmission.
- To examine COVID-19 spread scenarios in Turkey and Italy.
Main Methods:
- Development of a compartmental mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission.
- Inclusion of a 'personal cautiousness' parameter to represent individual adherence to safety measures.
- Mathematical analysis of model equilibria, stability, and parameter sensitivity.
- Simulation of disease spread scenarios by varying viral exposure rates for incautious individuals.
Main Results:
- Personal cautiousness is a significant factor in controlling the spread of COVID-19.
- Mathematical analysis quantified the impact of cautious behavior on transmission dynamics.
- Varying viral exposure rates for incautious individuals demonstrated different pandemic trajectories.
- The model provided insights into disease spread in culturally similar nations (Turkey and Italy).
Conclusions:
- Emphasizes the critical role of personal cautiousness in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Highlights the need to consider individual behavior in public health strategies.
- Suggests that promoting personal cautiousness can be an effective tool for pandemic management.
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