Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Change Research
• Crop Modeling

Background:

• Climate change accelerates crop development, threatening global food security and agricultural production.
• Faster crop maturity due to warming can lead to reduced yields.
• Adapting crop varieties is crucial to maintain growing period length and productivity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of crop variety adaptation on global caloric production under future climate change scenarios.
• To identify regions requiring new crop varieties and those suitable for shifting existing varieties.
• To assess the effectiveness of variety adaptation strategies for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models.
• Employed data from five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models.
• Analyzed four distinct future climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSPs).

Main Results:

• By the end of the century, 39% of global cropland (under SSP5-8.5) may need novel crop varieties to prevent yield loss.
• Under lower warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of current croplands can adapt by shifting existing varieties within agro-ecological zones.
• The availability of varieties significantly impacts adaptation effectiveness, potentially reducing it by over half in high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5).

Conclusions:

• Region-specific crop breeding programs are essential for successful adaptation to climate change.
• Variety adaptation strategies must consider the availability of suitable cultivars.
• Effective adaptation requires a combination of breeding and strategic variety deployment.