A nomogram prognostic index for risk-stratification in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the rituximab era: a
Jun Cai1,2, Xiaopeng Tian1,2, Shuyun Ma1,2
1State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, P. R. China.
Background:
We aimed to establish a predictive prognostic risk-stratification model for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) in the rituximab era.
Methods:
The data of 1406 primary DLBCL patients from the Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center were analysed to establish a nomogram prognostic index (NPI) model for predicting overall survival (OS) based on pre-treatment indicators. An independent cohort of 954 DLBCL patients from three other hospitals was used for external validation.
Results:
Age, performance status, stage, lactate dehydrogenase, number of extranodal sites, BCL2, CD5 expression, B symptoms and absolute lymphocyte and monocyte count were the main factors of the NPI model and could stratify the patients into four distinct categories based on their predicted OS. The calibration curve demonstrated satisfactory agreement between the predicted and actual 5-year OS of the patients. The concordance index of the NPI model (0.794) was higher than the IPI (0.759) and NCCN-IPI (0.750), and similar results were obtained upon external validation. For CD5 + DLBCL patients, systemic treatment with high-dose methotrexate was associated with superior OS compared to R-CHOP-based immunochemotherapy alone.
Conclusions:
We established and validated an accurate prediction model, which performed better than IPI and NCCN-IPI for prognostic stratification of DLBCL patients.
